In 2019 the IDF, as part of a consortia with the University College London (UCL), Oxford Brookes University, Brunel University London and the Institute of Technology Bandung (IBT) was awarded grant funding by the Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, Lighthill Risk Network and Turing Institute to undertake research and model physical loss and social vulnerability arising from tsunami events across all islands of Indonesia.
Indonesia is one of the countries that has suffered the most from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami (160,000 deaths and 500,000 displaced), and from a series of smaller tsunamis such as the recent 2018 Sulawesi event. Sometimes, earthquakes and volcanoes generate landslides that create locally large tsunamis (e.g. the 1992 Flores, the September 2018 Sulawesi tsunami that struck Palu, the December 2018 Sunda strait tsunami due to partial collapse of the Anak Krakatau).
The project will research and model physical loss and social vulnerability arising from tsunami events across all islands of Indonesia. The institutions will co-develop, with other partners, local stakeholders and experts, a catastrophe model of Indonesian tsunamis comprising of an event set and vulnerability curves on the open platform Oasis. The project will create regional models of all major sources of tsunamis generated by earthquakes over the entire coast of Indonesia, including potential combinations with landslide sources triggered by earthquakes and volcanoes since these can have severe local impacts. The project will produce stochastic hazard footprints for all these events by developing, and applying, bespoke statistical tools of Uncertainty Quantification. New vulnerability functions for the resilience of infrastructure such as ports and for livelihood of populations will be produced. The output will be of use to both Government and the insurance industry and enable modern disaster risk financing for Indonesia.
Project Deliverables include:
- An open Catastrophe model for Indonesia tsunami incorporating uncertainty in Oasis format
- deliver probabilistic event set + hazard, vulnerability and exposure modules in the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework
- Stochastic event set + hazard footprints from all major sources of tsunamis generated by earthquakes over the entire coast of Indonesia, as well as potential tsunamigenic landslide sources triggered by earthquakes and volcanoes
- New vulnerability functions for infrastructure such as ports and business impacts including both Business Interruption (BI) and Contingent Business Interruption (CBI)
- New vulnerability functions for welfare and livelihood vulnerability for various metrics of impacts such as debt, health expenditure and livelihood of populations
- A national open hazard model reflecting the uncertainties in the source
- Case studies on selected major ports and/or business zones, showing physical impact and economic loss through disruption to imports and exports.
- Estimates of risk to residential and commercial buildings, applying the above hazard research to the best available proxy exposure data sets (e.g. earth observations data (METEOR), Oasis database and Open Street Map (OSM.)
- Vulnerability metrics demonstrating impact on household income and consumption patterns
- Model documentation on development methodology, data sources, model validation, sufficient for insurance industry usage in compliance with regulatory requirements
- Release any and all public data which was gathered in the development of the model on the Oasis Hub
- High quality research published in appropriate peer reviewed journals
26th August, 2020