Would you trust a risk model to guide decisions about your country’s financial resilience, without knowing whether it is fit for purpose?
Governments increasingly rely on climate and disaster risk models to inform public spending, design insurance solutions and prepare for future shocks. But inappropriate risk estimates can leave public finances exposed and vulnerable communities without adequate support.
The Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA*) has recently launched “Evaluating a Model’s Appropriateness for Climate & Disaster Risk Finance Decision Making” – a practical guide to help governments assess whether a model is suitable for the decisions they need to make.
The report provides a step-by-step framework to help policymakers and technical teams:
- Define the risk question and identify what a model needs to deliver.
- Examine data, assumptions and limitations across hazard, exposure, vulnerability and financial loss.
- Compare modelled results with historical experience and understand uncertainty.
- Ask model suppliers the right questions before relying on their outputs.
At the heart of the report is a clear message: access to risk models must go hand in hand with the capability to evaluate and use them.
Prepared by our IDF Change Agent colleague Alastair Norris, with technical contributions from Aon and Chaucer, the report supports governments in building that capability—helping turn risk insight into informed financing decisions for Future-Ready Nations.
📖 Read the report:
* The GRMA is a public-good service platform dedicated to delivering access and capability in climate and disaster risk insight to build resilience where it is needed the most. It was co-founded by the IDF and the V20; it is funded by the German government and operated in partnership by the IDF and the InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF), hosted at Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
